AI Insider chronicles the evolution of AI and machine learning. Through writings and multimedia, it provides deep and analytical views into the industry’s biggest players, opportunities and strategies. It’s about insights, not cheerleading. Run by analysts and former journalists, coverage is grounded in a disciplined and journalistic approach. It also maintains a business angle: Though there are lots of fun and games in augmented and virtual reality, long-term cultural, technological and financial implications are primary.
Products include the AI Insider publication and aresearch subscription, still to come. Research will includes monthly original reports,market-sizing forecasts and consumer survey data — all housed in an indexed and searchable intelligence vault.
OpenAI’s “12 days of shipmas” event doesn’t kick off for a while, but the first big announcement might’ve been revealed early. A “feature gated” web page on OpenAI’s website refers to a “ChatGPT Pro” plan that includes all the benefits of ChatGPT Plus, as well as new goodies. Recall that ChatGPT Plus …
xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company, has raised $6 billion, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday. Investors gave a minimum of $77,593, per the filing (97 participated, but the document doesn’t reveal their identities). The Wall Street Journal previously reported …
If Don Draper from “Mad Men” was quintessentially, at his deepest self, an ad man, then Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff is likewise a sales guy. Lately he’s been selling — or more like singing the gospel — about AI agents and Salesforce’s recently released agent-maker platform, Agentforce. It’s true …
As one of the biggest tech companies in the world, Amazon’s position in the ongoing generative AI race has been mainly focused on building out its developer tools and platforms — as well as providing significant funding for startup Anthropic. But no longer: as announced today by CEO Andy Jassy at …
AWS announced more updates for Bedrock aimed to spot hallucinations and build smaller models faster as enterprises want more customization and accuracy from models. AWS announced during re:Invent 2024 Amazon Bedrock Model Distillation and Automated Reasoning Checks on preview for enterprise …
Had Yurts founder Ben Van Roo’s eyes been better, he might’ve followed in his family’s footsteps and joined the Air Force. “My whole family was in the Air Force. All of them are pilots,” he said, admitting later that, “my vision wasn’t quite there.” Instead, he’s helping the military in a very …
Google’s video generator is coming to a few more customers — Google Cloud customers, to be precise. On Tuesday, Google announced that Veo, its AI model that can generate short video clips from images and prompts, will be available in private preview for customers using Vertex AI, Google Cloud’s AI …
At its re:Invent conference on Tuesday, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Amazon’s cloud computing division, announced a new family of multimodal generative AI models it calls Nova. There are four text-generating models in total: Micro, Lite, Pro, and Premier. Micro, Lite, and Pro are available Tuesday to …
Many startups and large tech companies are building AI agents or programs that can handle multi-step tasks without user supervision. Once available, these agents will need to collaborate with each other to complete complex jobs, such as booking and paying for flights, hotels, and …
OpenAI is toying with a move into ads, per the Financial Times. CFO Sarah Friar told the newspaper it’s weighing an ads business model, with plans to be “thoughtful” about when and where ads appear. In a follow-on statement, Friar stressed it has “no active plans to pursue advertising,” but it …
Next month, at AWS re:Invent 2024, long-standing Amazon Web Services partner Proto will debut the next evolution of its AI-powered immersive hologram …
Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, is reportedly preparing to release a stand-alone consumer app. That’s according to The Wall Street Journal, which reports that the upcoming app will be similar to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, allowing users to access xAI’s Grok chatbot from their personal devices. The app will …
Back in 2016, Hammad Syed and Mahmoud Felfel, an ex-WhatsApp engineer, thought it’d be neat to build a text-to-speech Chrome extension for Medium articles. The extension, which could read any Medium story aloud, was featured on Product Hunt. A year later, it spawned an entire business. “We saw a …
Anthropic is proposing a new standard for connecting AI assistants to the systems where data resides. Called the Model Context Protocol, or MCP for short, Anthropic says the standard, which it open sourced today, could help AI models produce better, more relevant responses to queries. MCP lets models …
On Monday, Apple’s list of finalists for its coveted “iPhone App of the Year” award once again reveals how the iPhone maker is downplaying the impact of AI technology on the mobile app ecosystem. As it did last year, Apple’s 2024 list of top iPhone finalists favors more traditional iOS apps, …
A group appears to have leaked access to Sora, OpenAI’s video generator, in protest of what it’s calling duplicity and “art washing” on OpenAI’s part. On Tuesday, the group published a project on the AI dev platform Hugging Face seemingly connected to OpenAI’s Sora API, which isn’t yet publicly …
YouTube announced on Thursday that its Dream Screen feature for Shorts now lets you create AI-generated video backgrounds. Up until now, Dream Screen could only create image backgrounds. The new capability is possible due to the integration of Google DeepMind’s AI video-generation model, Veo, which …
OpenAI is expanding ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Mode feature to the web, letting users talk to the AI chatbot right from their browser. The company’s chief product officer, Kevin Weil, announced the launch on X. The feature, which makes ChatGPT more natural to speak with, is rolling out to ChatGPT’s …
Meta hired Salesforce’s CEO of AI, Clara Shih, to lead a new organization building AI tools for businesses that use Meta’s apps to reach consumers, according to a LinkedIn post from Shih on Tuesday. Meta confirmed the appointment and the new Business AI group in a statement to TechCrunch. “I’m …
AI labs traveling the road to super-intelligent systems are realizing they might have to take a detour. “AI scaling laws,” the methods and expectations that labs have used to increase the capabilities of their models for the last five years, are now showing signs of diminishing returns, according to …
AI agents are the talk of the enterprise right now. But, business leaders want to hear about tangible results and relevant use cases — as opposed to futuristic, not-quite-there-yet scenarios — and demand tools that are easy to deploy and use and, further, that support their preferred …
Microsoft has quietly built the largest enterprise AI agent ecosystem, with over 100,000 organizations creating or editing AI agents through its Copilot Studio since launch – a milestone that positions the company ahead in one of enterprise tech’s most closely watched and exciting segments. “That’s …
Unions representing Hollywood actors and writers went on strike last year to secure protections against AI systems taking their jobs. But Ben Affleck says that actors and screenwriters shouldn’t worry about AI because it’s not capable of doing either job today, and likely won’t for a long …
Microsoft plans to let Teams users clone their voices so they can have their sound-alikes speak to others in meetings in different languages. At Microsoft Ignite 2024 on Tuesday, the company revealed Interpreter in Teams, a tool for Microsoft Teams that delivers “real-time, speech-to-speech” …
Google’s Gemini chatbot can now remember things like info about your life, work, and personal preferences. As flagged by posters on X (and Google’s official account), a “memory” feature has begun rolling out to certain Gemini users, including this reporter. Like ChatGPT’s memory, Gemini’s adds …
AI-powered search engine Perplexity is venturing into e-commerce. On Monday, the company debuted a new shopping feature for its paid customers in the U.S. which offers shopping recommendations within Perplexity’s search results as well as the ability to place an order without going to a retailer’s …
Basejump unveiled its Web3 social gaming platform with an AI-powered gaming substrate dubbed Action that lets players create their own games. The company has also raised a strategic investment round from Community Labs. Set to debut in early 2025, Basejump allows players to earn, explore, and share …
A startup is training an AI system that it claims will enable creators to generate cinematic worlds, with complete control over the scenery, characters, lighting, and motion. How? By having humans strap cameras to their backs and hike around the world. Odyssey, founded by self-driving pioneers …
OpenAI could release an “AI agent” tool as soon as January. That’s according to Bloomberg, which reports that OpenAI is close to launching software, code-named “Operator,” that can take direct actions on a person’s computer. OpenAI is said to be planning to initially launch Operator as a research …
The knowledge authority on spatial computing and the metaverse
ARtillry chronicles the evolution of augmented reality and virtual reality, otherwise known as spatial computing. Through writings and multimedia, it provides deep and analytical views into the industry’s biggest players, opportunities and strategies. It’s about insights, not cheerleading. Run by analysts and former journalists, coverage is grounded in a disciplined and journalistic approach. It also maintains a business angle: Though there are lots of fun and games in augmented and virtual reality, long-term cultural, technological and financial implications are primary.
Products include the AR Insider publication and the ARtillry PROresearch subscription. Research includes monthly original reports,market-sizing forecasts and consumer survey data — all housed in an indexed and searchable intelligence vault.
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September Report: Visual Search – AR’s Killer App?
October Report: VR Global Revenue Forecast 2021-2026
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Michael (ARtillery Intelligence) is a well-versed industry expert on AR and VR, and has authored multiple thought leadership pieces in the industry. Mike’s also been a knowledgeable speaker at a variety of conferences. I would recommend Mike for any kind of business strategy-related activity.
Kristi Cu
Strategy & Product, Building 8 / Facebook
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is, hands down, one of the best industry analysts I have ever worked with in my career. Mike provided great counsel to my company, Invoca, as we renamed/rebranded the company and announced Series C funding… I wish I could clone him.
Brett Smith
Communications Manager / Prezi
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
Reynaldo Zabala
XR Strategy Director / RazorEdge
As growth capital investors, we’re accustomed to completing thorough market diligence and speaking with many industry analysts and experts. Mike Boland [ARtillery Intelligence] is top-tier in terms of aptitude for digital transformation and, equally important, translating that into value creation and opportunity spotting.
Mike McClure
Principle / Sageview Capital
ARtillery Intelligence and Mike Boland have deep insights and data-backed narratives for XR’s impact. They’re a useful and valuable resource for anyone vetting business opportunities in these emerging fields.
Prem Nagarathnam
Global Strategist / Samsung
I couldn’t be more fortunate than to get to work with Mike and ARtillery Intelligence on a daily basis to build the VRARA’s SF operations. His background as a journalist and analyst help him synthesize the deluge of information coming to us in the VR/AR industries, and to find the salient points upon which to focus. He makes running events look easy, and that’s because of the tremendous amount of legwork that he does leading up to them to make sure they go off without a hitch.
Emily Olman
CEO & Co-founder / Spatial First
People in the industry look to Michael Boland and ARtillery Intelligence as the leading source of emerging trends, industry shift and innovation. Michael Boland is an industry term, as it’s not just his name anymore. He’s an excellent public speaker and company representative as I’ve had the pleasure of watching Mike build his impeccable reputation dramatically over the last decade. Mike is a leader in strategy, product, operations and innovation and would be a key asset to growing any company he consults with or works for. He has the Midas touch, as every project he’s worked on turns to gold, I’ve witnessed this at both BIA Kelsey and The VR/AR Association.
Kelly Benish
VP, Business Development / Navads
I have known Mike for over 10 years. He is one of those analysts who really “gets it.” He and ARtillery Intelligence have a good track record of spotting trends and writing/speaking about the technologies that will have the most impact on our lives and wallets.
Ron Braunfeld
VP, Business Development / Pingup
I’ve seen Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] on stage many times and he’s one of the best presenters I’ve ever seen
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President / Macabbey & Associates
There are so many people in this space that covet their ideas, and this is what cripples our space. Mike and ARtillery Intelligence have for years always been a driving force behind identifying emerging trends and sharing them with the world by either writing about it in one of his many publications, or standing on stage and delivering it at conferences.
Walt Geer
Creative Director / Verve Mobile
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is a triple threat: analyst, writer and public speaker. As an analyst, Mike not only knows how to identify and follow emerging trends, he knows how to share them in a way that’s digestible. On stage, Mike is confident, charming and informative. When writing, Mike is thorough, fair and precise. Mike makes analysis look easy because he puts the rigor necessary into being a thought leader.
Stacey Sedbrook
VP, Sales / Denver Business Journal
Michael [ARtillery Intelligence] is a smart analyst that has in-depth understanding of technology and the changes they are driving in the marketplace… His data-driven presentations and articles are always insightful to understand the customer needs and future direction.
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For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
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ARtillery Intelligence publishes several reports based on original market-sizing and revenue projections. Beyond monthly narrative reports that draw upon that data, we publish extensive data-centric reports. In all cases, key questions are how do we come up with these figures? and What’s included?
It’s important to specify this because there’s such variance across industry projections due to differences in methodology, and what’s being tracked. In a world where industry watchers get a reputation for “calling it in,” it’s important to disclose methodologies to demonstrate diligence in market sizing.
From the Bottom Up
It’s all about grounded calculations.
ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 15 years in research and intelligence in the tech sector. This includes the past four years covering spatial computing as a main focus. Each market-sizing or forecasting deliverable is different in its composition and inclusions, which are specified in each case (example). Generally speaking, Artillery Intelligence primarily applies the bottom-up approach, while then using the top-down method as a “gut-check.”
Bottom-Up (primary)
The bottom-up forecasting methodology requires building financial models that reflect the dynamics and unit economics of sectors being measured. This includes variables like unit sales, pricing trends, individual company performances, and several other micro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks. Because there are often sub-sectors that comprise an overall industry (e.g. enterprise and consumer AR), the bottom-up method requires unique models for each segment that reflects its unique unit economics and revenue drivers.
Top-Down (secondary)
The top-down methodology takes a more macro approach. It looks at influential market factors that inform industry revenue growth and trajectory. This can include aggregate sales, comparable/historic industry growth rates and other macro factors, such as share of GDP. This approach is useful to validate, challenge and/or gain additional levels of confidence after executing the bottom-up approach. Generally, that is our order of operations.
Together, confidence is achieved by triangulating market size in a disciplined way. It all comes together in a forecast model with several spreadsheet tabs and thousands of active cells. More about ARtillery Intelligence principles’ market-sizing history and credentials can be seen here.
What’s Included?
Revenue inclusions sway the outcome.
One of the biggest factors that impacts a given forecast’s final numbers is what revenue sources are included. Some firms include things that others don’t, which can sway the outcome by billions of dollars.
For instance, some firms count the transaction value of products bought through AR-interfaces as “AR revenue.” This would be the $2000 you pay for a couch bought using the IKEA Place app to visualize the item in your living room. We don’t count this as AR revenue, but we do count software elsewhere in the value chain, such as AR experience creation; or revenues for startups that enable AR commerce. That can take form in licensing, SaaS or affiliate commerce revenue.
Decisions like these that analyst firms make about what to include (or not include) are perfectly okay. We respect those decisions, as long as they’re specified clearly. Firms engaged in XR market sizing mostly do a good job communicating this. For you, knowing what a given forecast includes should be considered before taking strategic guidance away from it.
With that backdrop, our responsibility to you is to clearly specify everything that is included in our market-sizing reports. This is done as a matter of protocol for every forecast we produce. An example is below from a recent forecast, and we’re open to additional questions.
The Sudoku Analogy
Triangulating unknown quantities
One ongoing challenge in market sizing is data availability. It’s all about piecing together clues to extrapolate things like unit sales and revenues. In mature markets like smartphones, hardware players disclose figures — especially if publicly traded — but it’s a lot quieter on the early-stage front.
That’s the case with VR for example, which becomes an exercise in gathering hints in perpetual market-sizing mode. Sometimes there are exceptions like Sony’s disclosures for PSVR sales. Otherwise, it requires detective work to find reliable inputs for the financial models outlined above.
We often compare this to a Sudoku board. It’s similarly about logically devising unknown quantities using known ones. For example, along with primary research and insider discussions, things like hardware sales can be extrapolated using announced software sales in tandem with pricing and ARPU data.
The Sudoku approach isn’t a panacea, but rather a method pulled from a larger toolbox. In fact, having several approaches can stress-test and gut-check a financial model. It’s about coming at it from many different angles to gain validation and levels of confidence.
Another analogy this brings to mind is our days (many years ago) in high-school AP calculus. It was the ultimate form of validation to apply different methods that arrive at the same solution. It works even better with multiple double-blind participants. We live by this principle.
The other lesson from those days is to show your work… getting back to the principles above about well-communicated methodologies and inclusions. On that note, though our financial model is highly proprietary, we’re always eager to invoke sections to show our work.
Reportorial Rigor
Another question that follows the Sudoku analogy is how do we get our hands on the known quantities to even begin the exercise. The answer is lots of time and rigor. There are clues all around us in industry happenings, which we spend several hours per day collecting and talking to industry insiders.
The factor that propels this is our sister publication AR Insider. As former journalists, we’ve become conditioned to the cadence of daily reporting and publishing. As industry analysts, we’ve since learned that this is also the ultimate way to achieve deep knowledge and retention of any topic.
Moreover, the discipline of daily publishing exposes one to an immense amount of information, while press credentials provide deeper access. Our focused attention on industry happenings is then retained through the practice of indexing knowledge and data through taxonomies such as Evernote.
Then, when sitting down for the intensive forecasting process, that indexed base of tagged and filtered data starts us off with a wealth of inputs for our financial model. These are the known quantities of the Sudoku board, ensuring that we start the endeavor with a firm foundation.
Foundational Principle
Speaking of a firm foundation, our biggest priority when calculating market sizes is confidence and structural integrity in base-year figures. The elephant in the room with forecasting is that outer-year projections mostly rely on educated assumptions, revenue momentum, and historical patterns.
But the base year figures have no excuses. They must be accurate, well-backed and fire-tested. The best chance of ensuring accuracy and validity in building out future-year projections is to do so from a strong foundation of current and past-year precision. That is our foundational principle.
ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in its reports, unless specified in footnotes and endnotes. With respect to market sizing, ARtillery remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.