How do we come up with our figures?
ARtillery Intelligence publishes several reports based on original market-sizing and revenue projections. But important questions are how do we come up with these figures? and What’s included?
It’s important to specify this, because there’s such variance across industry projections due to differences in methodology, and what’s being tracked. In a world where industry watchers get a reputation for “calling it in,” it’s also important to disclose methodologies to demonstrate the diligence applied to market sizing.
ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 15 years in research and intelligence in the tech sector. This includes the past two years covering AR & VR as a main focus.
Each market-sizing or forecasting deliverable is different in its composition and inclusions, which are specified in each case (example). Generally speaking, Artillery Intelligence primarily applies the bottom-up approach, while then using the top-down method as a “gut-check.”
Bottom-Up: The bottom-up forecasting methodology requires building financial models that reflect the dynamics and unit economics of sectors being measured. This includes variables like unit sales, pricing trends, individual company performances, and several other micro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks. Because there are often sub-sectors that comprise an overall industry (e.g. enterprise and consumer AR), the bottom-up method requires unique models for each segment that reflects its unit economics and revenue drivers.
Top-Down: The top-down methodology takes a more macro approach. It looks at influential market factors that inform industry revenue growth and trajectory. This can include aggregate sales, comparable/historic industry growth rates and other macro factors, such as share of GDP. This approach is useful to validate, challenge and/or gain additional levels of confidence after executing the bottom-up approach. Generally, that is our order of operations.
Together, confidence is achieved by triangulating market size in a disciplined way. It all comes together in a forecast model with several spreadsheet tabs and thousands of active cells. More about ARtillery Intelligence principles’ market-sizing history and credentials can be seen here.
One of the biggest factors that impacts a given forecast’s final numbers is what revenue sources are included. Some firms include things that others don’t, which can sway the outcome by billions of dollars.
For instance, some firms count the transaction value of products bought through AR-interfaces as “AR revenue.” This would be the $1200 you pay for a couch bought using the IKEA Place app to visualize the item in your living room. We don’t count this as AR revenue, but we do count software elsewhere in the value chain, such as AR experience creation; or other revenues for startups that enable AR commerce. That can take form in licensing, SaaS or affiliate commerce revenue.
Decisions like these that analyst firms make about what to include or not include are perfectly okay. We respect those decisions, as long as they’re specified clearly. Firms engaged in XR market sizing mostly do a good job communicating this. For you, knowing what a given forecast includes should be considered before taking strategic guidance away from it.
With that backdrop, our responsibility to you is to clearly specify everything that is included in our market-sizing reports. This is done as a matter of protocol for every forecast we produce. An example is below from a recent forecast, and we’re open to additional questions.
Disclosure & Ethics Policy
ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in its reports, nor is it commissioned by industry players to produce them. With respect to market sizing, ARtillery remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.