How big is the VR market? What’s driving it?

 

Executive Summary

Like many research & intelligence firms, one of the things that ARtillery Intelligence does is market sizing. A few times per year, we go into isolation and bury ourselves deep in financial modeling. This takes the insights and observations we accumulate throughout the year, and synthesizes them into revenue estimates for the current and future spatial computing industry (methodology details here).

In covering spatial computing for six years, our sector knowledge base and perspective continue to expand. That occurs on several levels, including insight and access to insider information, all of which informs our forecast models and inputs. Further reinforcing that knowledge position, the daily rigors of editorial production at our sister publication AR Insider reinforces our market insights.

Beyond knowledge position and market-sizing process, the focus of these forecasts likewise continues to evolve. Our first market forecast five years ago examined AR, VR and all their revenue subsegments. In recent years, we’ve begun to produce separate forecasts for AR and VR. Though they share technological underpinnings, their nuanced market dynamics deserve standalone examination.

This year, we continue that focused approach. After publishing forecasts in July on mobile AR*, and September on head-worn AR**, we now turn attention in this report to VR. This includes a revenue outlook for key categories such as hardware, software, consumer and enterprise spending. Other subdivisions include revenue categories like location-based entertainment.

So what did we find out? Our outlook continues to be best characterized as cautiously optimistic, especially when compared to several large research firms that turn attention to VR occasionally to publish eyepopping revenue estimates in the hundreds of billions of dollars. By comparison, we’re comfortably and confidently in the tens-of-billions range for aggregate VR spending in outer years of this financial outlook.

The question is how VR is materializing today? How are revenues trending? Which subsectors are most opportune? How will Meta’s ongoing investments accelerate the sector? And how will VR fare in the post-Covid era? We tackle these questions through numbers & narratives.

 

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What’s Covered?

 

Methodology

ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 16 years in research and intelligence in tech sectors. This includes the past 6 years covering AR & VR as a main focus.

This report focuses on VR revenue projections in various sub-sectors and product areas. ARtillery Intelligence has built financial models that are customized to the specific dynamics and unit economics of each. These include variables like unit sales, company revenues, pricing trends, market trajectory and several other micro and macro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks.

This approach primarily applies a bottom-up forecasting methodology, which is secondarily vetted against a top-down analysis. Together, confidence is achieved through triangulating revenues and projections in a disciplined way. For more information on what’s included and not included in the forecast (a key consideration when evaluating findings) see the above slide.

More about ARtillery Intelligence’s market-sizing methodology can be seen here and more on its credentials can be seen here.

Disclosure & Ethics Statement

Unless specified in its stock ownership disclosures, ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in its reports. The production of this report likewise wasn’t commissioned. With all market sizing, ARtillery Intelligence remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. ARtillery Intelligence’s disclosures, stock ownership and ethics policy can be seen in full here.

 

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