AI Insider chronicles the evolution of AI and machine learning. Through writings and multimedia, it provides deep and analytical views into the industry’s biggest players, opportunities and strategies. It’s about insights, not cheerleading. Run by analysts and former journalists, coverage is grounded in a disciplined and journalistic approach. It also maintains a business angle: Though there are lots of fun and games in augmented and virtual reality, long-term cultural, technological and financial implications are primary.
Products include the AI Insider publication and aresearch subscription, still to come. Research will includes monthly original reports,market-sizing forecasts and consumer survey data — all housed in an indexed and searchable intelligence vault.
The knowledge authority on spatial computing and the metaverse
ARtillry chronicles the evolution of augmented reality and virtual reality, otherwise known as spatial computing. Through writings and multimedia, it provides deep and analytical views into the industry’s biggest players, opportunities and strategies. It’s about insights, not cheerleading. Run by analysts and former journalists, coverage is grounded in a disciplined and journalistic approach. It also maintains a business angle: Though there are lots of fun and games in augmented and virtual reality, long-term cultural, technological and financial implications are primary.
Products include the AR Insider publication and the ARtillry PROresearch subscription. Research includes monthly original reports,market-sizing forecasts and consumer survey data — all housed in an indexed and searchable intelligence vault.
Latest Reports
Our most recent recent work…
September Report: Visual Search – AR’s Killer App?
October Report: VR Global Revenue Forecast 2021-2026
November Report: Spatial Computing – 2022 Lessons, 2023 Outlook
Michael (ARtillery Intelligence) is a well-versed industry expert on AR and VR, and has authored multiple thought leadership pieces in the industry. Mike’s also been a knowledgeable speaker at a variety of conferences. I would recommend Mike for any kind of business strategy-related activity.
Kristi Cu
Strategy & Product, Building 8 / Facebook
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is, hands down, one of the best industry analysts I have ever worked with in my career. Mike provided great counsel to my company, Invoca, as we renamed/rebranded the company and announced Series C funding… I wish I could clone him.
Brett Smith
Communications Manager / Prezi
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
Reynaldo Zabala
XR Strategy Director / RazorEdge
As growth capital investors, we’re accustomed to completing thorough market diligence and speaking with many industry analysts and experts. Mike Boland [ARtillery Intelligence] is top-tier in terms of aptitude for digital transformation and, equally important, translating that into value creation and opportunity spotting.
Mike McClure
Principle / Sageview Capital
ARtillery Intelligence and Mike Boland have deep insights and data-backed narratives for XR’s impact. They’re a useful and valuable resource for anyone vetting business opportunities in these emerging fields.
Prem Nagarathnam
Global Strategist / Samsung
I couldn’t be more fortunate than to get to work with Mike and ARtillery Intelligence on a daily basis to build the VRARA’s SF operations. His background as a journalist and analyst help him synthesize the deluge of information coming to us in the VR/AR industries, and to find the salient points upon which to focus. He makes running events look easy, and that’s because of the tremendous amount of legwork that he does leading up to them to make sure they go off without a hitch.
Emily Olman
CEO & Co-founder / Spatial First
People in the industry look to Michael Boland and ARtillery Intelligence as the leading source of emerging trends, industry shift and innovation. Michael Boland is an industry term, as it’s not just his name anymore. He’s an excellent public speaker and company representative as I’ve had the pleasure of watching Mike build his impeccable reputation dramatically over the last decade. Mike is a leader in strategy, product, operations and innovation and would be a key asset to growing any company he consults with or works for. He has the Midas touch, as every project he’s worked on turns to gold, I’ve witnessed this at both BIA Kelsey and The VR/AR Association.
Kelly Benish
VP, Business Development / Navads
I have known Mike for over 10 years. He is one of those analysts who really “gets it.” He and ARtillery Intelligence have a good track record of spotting trends and writing/speaking about the technologies that will have the most impact on our lives and wallets.
Ron Braunfeld
VP, Business Development / Pingup
I’ve seen Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] on stage many times and he’s one of the best presenters I’ve ever seen
Michele Chaboudy
President / Macabbey & Associates
There are so many people in this space that covet their ideas, and this is what cripples our space. Mike and ARtillery Intelligence have for years always been a driving force behind identifying emerging trends and sharing them with the world by either writing about it in one of his many publications, or standing on stage and delivering it at conferences.
Walt Geer
Creative Director / Verve Mobile
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is a triple threat: analyst, writer and public speaker. As an analyst, Mike not only knows how to identify and follow emerging trends, he knows how to share them in a way that’s digestible. On stage, Mike is confident, charming and informative. When writing, Mike is thorough, fair and precise. Mike makes analysis look easy because he puts the rigor necessary into being a thought leader.
Stacey Sedbrook
VP, Sales / Denver Business Journal
Michael [ARtillery Intelligence] is a smart analyst that has in-depth understanding of technology and the changes they are driving in the marketplace… His data-driven presentations and articles are always insightful to understand the customer needs and future direction.
RadhaKrishna Hiremane
Head of Data Platform and Integration / Boeing AnalytX
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For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
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AR Insider Thought Leaders
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Privacy Policy
ARtillry Intelligence, LLC (“ARtillery”) operates arinsider.co, artillry.co and may operate other websites. It is ARtillery’s policy to respect your privacy regarding any information we may collect while operating our websites.
Website Visitors
Like most website operators, ARtillery collects non-personally-identifying information of the sort that web browsers and servers typically make available, such as the browser type, language preference, referring site, and the date and time of each visitor request. ARtillery’s purpose in collecting non-personally identifying information is to better understand how ARtillery’s visitors use its website. From time to time, ARtillery may release non-personally-identifying information in the aggregate, e.g., by publishing a report on trends in the usage of its website.
ARtillery also collects potentially personally-identifying information like Internet Protocol (IP) addresses for logged in users and for users leaving comments on artillry.co blogs/sites. ARtillery only discloses logged in user and commenter IP addresses under the same circumstances that it uses and discloses personally-identifying information as described below.
Subscriber Anonymity
ARtillery offers different tiers of subscription-based products, including but not limited to those listed below.
AR Insider Weekly. The free AR Insider Weekly newsletter requires the collection of subscribers’ email addresses. It only collects email addresses with no other personally identifying information such as name, company or job title. It uses email addresses for the purpose of delivering the newsletter on a weekly basis, with the option for subscribers to opt-out anytime. Email addresses may also be used occasionally for messaging from ARtillery or its partners. Email addresses are never shared nor sold with any entities outside of ARtillery.
AR Insider Thought Leaders. AR Insider’s Thought Leaders Program collects information about members that is required to manage their customer accounts. Examples include but are not limited to username and email address. ARtillery does not have access to subscribers’ passwords, which are stored and encrypted by ARtillery’s content management system. Subscribers can access and reset passwords, along with other account management, in the “accounts” section of ARtillery PRO, available and linked at the top of each page within the ARtillery PRO domain.
ARtillery PRO. ARtillery collects information about subscribers that is required to manage their customer accounts. Examples include but are not limited to username and email address. ARtillery does not have access to subscribers’ passwords, which are stored and encrypted by ARtillery’s content management system. Subscribers can access and reset passwords, along with other account management, in the “accounts” section of ARtillery PRO, available and linked at the top of each page within the ARtillery PRO domain.
ARtillery will not share subscribers’ personally-identifying information on an individual basis (individual human entities). It does, however, reserve the right to disclose publicly the company names and logos of subscribers, or the names and logos of companies that individual subscribers are affiliated with, or employees of. These company names may be used by ARtillery in marketing materials or subscriber lists that it uses to validate or promote the service in its sales materials. Subscribers that wish to not have their affiliated company names or logos identified in this way, or that wish to be removed from existing promotional materials, can opt-out by emailing theartillry@gmail.com.
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Certain visitors to ARtillery’s websites choose to interact with ARtillery in ways that require ARtillery to gather personally-identifying information. The amount and type of information that ARtillry gathers depend on the nature of the interaction. For example, we ask visitors who sign up at artillry.co to provide a username and email address. Those who engage in transactions with ARtillery are asked to provide additional information, including as necessary the personal and financial information required to process those transactions. In each case, ARtillry collects such information only insofar as is necessary or appropriate to fulfill the purpose of the visitor’s interaction with ARtillry. ARtillry does not disclose personally-identifying information other than as described below. And visitors can always refuse to supply personally-identifying information, with the caveat that it may prevent them from engaging in certain website-related activities.
Aggregated Statistics
ARtillery may collect statistics about the behavior of visitors to its websites. ARtillery may display this information publicly or provide it to others. However, ARtillery does not disclose personally-identifying information other than as described below.
Protection of Certain Personally-Identifying Information
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If ARtillery, or substantially all of its assets, were acquired, or in the unlikely event that ARtillery goes out of business or enters bankruptcy, user information would be one of the assets that is transferred or acquired by a third party. You acknowledge that such transfers may occur, and that any acquirer of ARtillery may continue to use your personal information as set forth in this policy.
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Privacy Policy Changes
Although most changes are likely to be minor, ARtillery may change its Privacy Policy from time to time, and in ARtillery’s sole discretion. ARtillery encourages visitors to frequently check this page for any changes to its Privacy Policy. If you have an ARtillery PRO account, you might also receive an alert informing you of these changes. Your continued use of this site after any change in this Privacy Policy will constitute your acceptance of such change.
ARtillery Intelligence publishes several reports based on original market-sizing and revenue projections. Beyond monthly narrative reports that draw upon that data, we publish extensive data-centric reports. In all cases, key questions are how do we come up with these figures? and What’s included?
It’s important to specify this because there’s such variance across industry projections due to differences in methodology, and what’s being tracked. In a world where industry watchers get a reputation for “calling it in,” it’s important to disclose methodologies to demonstrate diligence in market sizing.
From the Bottom Up
It’s all about grounded calculations.
ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 15 years in research and intelligence in the tech sector. This includes the past four years covering spatial computing as a main focus. Each market-sizing or forecasting deliverable is different in its composition and inclusions, which are specified in each case (example). Generally speaking, Artillery Intelligence primarily applies the bottom-up approach, while then using the top-down method as a “gut-check.”
Bottom-Up (primary)
The bottom-up forecasting methodology requires building financial models that reflect the dynamics and unit economics of sectors being measured. This includes variables like unit sales, pricing trends, individual company performances, and several other micro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks. Because there are often sub-sectors that comprise an overall industry (e.g. enterprise and consumer AR), the bottom-up method requires unique models for each segment that reflects its unique unit economics and revenue drivers.
Top-Down (secondary)
The top-down methodology takes a more macro approach. It looks at influential market factors that inform industry revenue growth and trajectory. This can include aggregate sales, comparable/historic industry growth rates and other macro factors, such as share of GDP. This approach is useful to validate, challenge and/or gain additional levels of confidence after executing the bottom-up approach. Generally, that is our order of operations.
Together, confidence is achieved by triangulating market size in a disciplined way. It all comes together in a forecast model with several spreadsheet tabs and thousands of active cells. More about ARtillery Intelligence principles’ market-sizing history and credentials can be seen here.
What’s Included?
Revenue inclusions sway the outcome.
One of the biggest factors that impacts a given forecast’s final numbers is what revenue sources are included. Some firms include things that others don’t, which can sway the outcome by billions of dollars.
For instance, some firms count the transaction value of products bought through AR-interfaces as “AR revenue.” This would be the $2000 you pay for a couch bought using the IKEA Place app to visualize the item in your living room. We don’t count this as AR revenue, but we do count software elsewhere in the value chain, such as AR experience creation; or revenues for startups that enable AR commerce. That can take form in licensing, SaaS or affiliate commerce revenue.
Decisions like these that analyst firms make about what to include (or not include) are perfectly okay. We respect those decisions, as long as they’re specified clearly. Firms engaged in XR market sizing mostly do a good job communicating this. For you, knowing what a given forecast includes should be considered before taking strategic guidance away from it.
With that backdrop, our responsibility to you is to clearly specify everything that is included in our market-sizing reports. This is done as a matter of protocol for every forecast we produce. An example is below from a recent forecast, and we’re open to additional questions.
The Sudoku Analogy
Triangulating unknown quantities
One ongoing challenge in market sizing is data availability. It’s all about piecing together clues to extrapolate things like unit sales and revenues. In mature markets like smartphones, hardware players disclose figures — especially if publicly traded — but it’s a lot quieter on the early-stage front.
That’s the case with VR for example, which becomes an exercise in gathering hints in perpetual market-sizing mode. Sometimes there are exceptions like Sony’s disclosures for PSVR sales. Otherwise, it requires detective work to find reliable inputs for the financial models outlined above.
We often compare this to a Sudoku board. It’s similarly about logically devising unknown quantities using known ones. For example, along with primary research and insider discussions, things like hardware sales can be extrapolated using announced software sales in tandem with pricing and ARPU data.
The Sudoku approach isn’t a panacea, but rather a method pulled from a larger toolbox. In fact, having several approaches can stress-test and gut-check a financial model. It’s about coming at it from many different angles to gain validation and levels of confidence.
Another analogy this brings to mind is our days (many years ago) in high-school AP calculus. It was the ultimate form of validation to apply different methods that arrive at the same solution. It works even better with multiple double-blind participants. We live by this principle.
The other lesson from those days is to show your work… getting back to the principles above about well-communicated methodologies and inclusions. On that note, though our financial model is highly proprietary, we’re always eager to invoke sections to show our work.
Reportorial Rigor
Another question that follows the Sudoku analogy is how do we get our hands on the known quantities to even begin the exercise. The answer is lots of time and rigor. There are clues all around us in industry happenings, which we spend several hours per day collecting and talking to industry insiders.
The factor that propels this is our sister publication AR Insider. As former journalists, we’ve become conditioned to the cadence of daily reporting and publishing. As industry analysts, we’ve since learned that this is also the ultimate way to achieve deep knowledge and retention of any topic.
Moreover, the discipline of daily publishing exposes one to an immense amount of information, while press credentials provide deeper access. Our focused attention on industry happenings is then retained through the practice of indexing knowledge and data through taxonomies such as Evernote.
Then, when sitting down for the intensive forecasting process, that indexed base of tagged and filtered data starts us off with a wealth of inputs for our financial model. These are the known quantities of the Sudoku board, ensuring that we start the endeavor with a firm foundation.
Foundational Principle
Speaking of a firm foundation, our biggest priority when calculating market sizes is confidence and structural integrity in base-year figures. The elephant in the room with forecasting is that outer-year projections mostly rely on educated assumptions, revenue momentum, and historical patterns.
But the base year figures have no excuses. They must be accurate, well-backed and fire-tested. The best chance of ensuring accuracy and validity in building out future-year projections is to do so from a strong foundation of current and past-year precision. That is our foundational principle.
ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in its reports, unless specified in footnotes and endnotes. With respect to market sizing, ARtillery remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.
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