How much is being made today? What’s the future outlook?
Like many research & intelligence firms, one of the things that ARtillery Intelligence does is market sizing. A few times per year, we go into isolation and bury ourselves deep in financial modeling. This takes the insights and observations we accumulate throughout the year and synthesizes them into hard numbers for the current and future spatial computing industry (methodology details here).
In covering spatial computing exclusively for five years, our sector knowledge base and perspective continue to improve. That occurs on several levels, including insight and access to insider information, all of which informs our forecast models and inputs. Further reinforcing that knowledge position, the daily rigors of editorial production at our sister publication AR Insider emboldens our market access and insights.
Beyond knowledge-position and market-sizing process, the focus of these forecasts likewise continues to evolve. Our first market forecast four years ago examined AR, VR and their revenue subsegments. Last year, we began to produce separate forecasts for AR and VR. Though they share technological underpinnings, their nuanced market dynamics deserve deeper and focused treatment.
This year, we continue that focused approach. After publishing forecasts in July on mobile AR, and September on head-worn AR, we now turn attention in this report to VR. This includes a revenue outlook for key revenue categories like VR hardware, software, consumer and enterprise spending. Other subdivisions include revenue categories like location-based entertainment.
So what did we find out? Our outlook continues to be best characterized as cautiously optimistic, especially when compared to several large research firms that turn attention to AR & VR occasionally to publish eye-popping revenue estimates in the hundreds of billions of dollars. We’re still comfortably and confidently in the low single-digit billions, with outer-year projections in the low tens of billions (sample above).
The question is how VR is materializing today: How are revenues trending? Which subsectors are most opportune? How will Facebook’s ongoing investment accelerate the sector? And how will a global pandemic continue to impact VR? We tackle these questions through numbers & narratives.
ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 15 years in research and intelligence in tech sectors. This includes the past 5 years covering AR & VR as a main focus.
This report focuses on VR revenue projections in various sub-sectors and product areas. ARtillery Intelligence has built financial models that are customized to the specific dynamics and unit economics of each. These include variables like unit sales, company revenues, pricing trends, market trajectory and several other micro and macro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks.
This approach primarily applies a bottom-up forecasting methodology, which is secondarily vetted against a top-down analysis. Together, confidence is achieved through triangulating revenues and projections in a disciplined way. For more information on what’s included and not included in the forecast (a key consideration when evaluating the figures), see above.
Disclosure & Ethics Statement
ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in this report, nor received payment for its production. With respect to market sizing, ARtillery Intelligence remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.