We project global AR revenues to grow from $1.96 billion in 2018 to $27.4 billion in 2023. 

ARtillery Intelligence’s latest report examines AR market size, projections and revenue drivers across all subsectors. Preview the report below, subscribe to access it in full, or purchase a la carte.


Executive Summary

The augmented reality sector continues to show early-stage characteristics, including volatile levels of interest and investment. But how big is it now, and how big will it get? ARtillery Intelligence has quantified its revenue position and outlook, resulting in our latest forecast. This is the fourth wave of ARtillery’s AR revenue forecast.

Built from daily market coverage, insider interviews and market-sizing experience from 15 years of analyst work (see methodology section), ARtillery Intelligence has devised a disciplined and independent market-sizing process. The analysis is segmented into revenue categories such as consumer, enterprise and sub-divisions of each.

So what did we find out? At a high level, ARtillery Intelligence’s position on AR revenue growth is best characterized as cautiously optimistic. Growth and scale will come, but likely slower than many industry proponents believe, due partly to the pace of adoption and other signals that ARtillery Intelligence – and its sister publication AR Insider — tracks.

In fact, you may notice that AR revenue projections in outer years are lower than other firms’ figures. They’re also notably lower than our past estimates, as we adjust to market signals. This is common in market forecasting, as proficient market watchers perpetually course-correct based on dynamic market conditions and variables.

The following pages quantify and project figures within several revenue categories, as well as hardware unit growth. Bulleted insights are included throughout to qualify the revenue drivers and rationale behind the numbers. And further narrative insights can be found in ARtillery Intelligence’s monthly reports, which can be accessed in the PRO library.

The goal, as always, is to empower you with a knowledge position.

       



Price: $999 

This report is available by subscribing to ARtillery PRO, You can also purchase it for $999. This includes a briefing with the report’s author to discuss takeaways and answer any questions you may have.

 


Excerpt: Key Takeaways 

Takeaways and growth dynamics for XR and its sub-sectors.

Consumer AR will grow from $* million in 2018 to $* billion in 2023, a 53 percent compound annual growth rate. Near-term revenues will be dominated by mobile AR. Revenues will also be software-centric during that time (mobile device sales aren’t counted as AR revenue) and will include premium apps and in-app purchases. The latter will dominate software revenues in the near term, due to consumer resistance to pay upfront for AR apps,* as well as the in-app revenue model validated by Pokémon Go. Niantic will find success in its Harry Potter-themed follow-up…

Enterprise AR will grow from $* billion in 2018 to $* billion in 2023, an 81 percent compound annual growth rate. This is subdivided between hardware, enterprise productivity software (e.g. visualization support in industrial settings), enterprise advertising, affiliate commerce revenue, and AR developer/enablement platforms. In industrial/productivity contexts, growth will result from wide applicability across enterprise verticals, and clear ROI (e.g. manufacturing efficiencies). Adoption is currently dampened by typical organizational inertia and risk aversion. ARtillery Intelligence…

AR Advertising will grow from $* million in 2018 to $* billion in 2023, an 81 percent compound annual growth rate. Included in our classification of “Enterprise AR” (due to the spending source), this involves product promotions through AR interfaces. As proved by Snapchat and Facebook, AR lenses can demonstrate products in highly immersive ways. This has shown relatively strong ad performance, which continues to attract brand advertisers and reinforce return on ad spend (ROAS). AR advertising also has a rare ability to span the “purchase funnel” from awareness…

AR Headsets will grow in unit sales from * hundred thousand in 2018 to * million in 2023. That correlates to an installed base of 5.03 million units in market by 2023. This includes both enterprise and consumer, the former leading in early years with 160,000 units sold in 2019. Consumer AR glasses will pull ahead in 2022 with 1.15 million units sold. This will result from improving standards and specs for consumer-grade smart glasses (size, weight, style, etc.). It will be further accelerated through Apple’s market entrance – both through its own AR glasses sales…

*See full report for revenue details


Price: $999 

This report is available by subscribing to ARtillery PRO, You can also purchase it for $999. This includes a briefing with the report’s author to discuss takeaways and answer any questions you may have.

 


Video Companion


What’s Covered


Methodology

ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 18 years in research and intelligence in the tech sector. This includes the past 2.5 years covering AR & VR as a main focus.

This report focuses on AR and VR revenue projections in various sub-sectors and product areas. ARtillery Intelligence has built financial models that are customized to the specific dynamics and unit economics of each. These include variables like unit sales, company revenues, pricing trends, market trajectory and several other micro and macro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks.

This approach primarily applies a bottom-up forecasting methodology, which is secondarily vetted against a top-down analysis. Together, confidence is achieved through triangulating revenues and projections in a disciplined way. For more information on what’s included and not included in the forecast, see the slide above.

More about ARtillery Intelligence methodology can be seen here, and market-sizing credentials can be seen here.


Disclosure and Ethics Statement

ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in this report, nor received payment for its production. With respect to market sizing, ARtillery Intelligence remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.


Price: $999 

This report is available by subscribing to ARtillery PRO, You can also purchase it for $999. This includes a briefing with the report’s author to discuss takeaways and answer any questions you may have.