Global XR Revenues will grow from $4.2 billion in 2017 to $61 billion in 2022. 

ARtillry’s latest industry forecast quantifies XR revenue and that of its sub-sectors including AR, VR and the enterprise and consumer segments of each. What are the breakdowns and strategic takeaways? Preview the 80-slide report, subscribe to ARtillry PRO, or purchase a la carte. 


Executive Summary

Many AR and VR (a.k.a. XR) stakeholders claim that their market sizes will be massive. But how big are they, and how big will they realistically get? ARtillry Intelligence has quantified these sectors and all their moving parts in precise terms. The result is our latest XR revenue forecast.

Applying market sizing and forecast experience from 15 years of analyst work (see methodology section), ARtillry Intelligence has devised a disciplined and independent revenue forecast for AR & VR, segmented into their product areas. That includes sub-sectors like enterprise AR & VR.

The following pages provide market revenue projections, subdivisions of each product category, and bulleted insights all along the way. This is meant to qualify the revenue drivers and rationale behind the numbers. And we’ll go deeper on specific data segments in future monthly reports.

Lastly, to characterize ARtillry Intelligence’s overall position on XR revenue growth, we maintain a cautiously-optimistic view. Growth and scale will come but likely slower than some industry proponents believe, due partly to the pace of adoption and other signals ARtillry tracks.


 


Excerpt: Key Takeaways 

Takeaways and growth dynamics for XR and its sub-sectors.

Enterprise AR will grow from $* million in 2017 to $* billion in 2022, a 113 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This makes it the largest XR sub-sector in 2022. Scale will result from wide applicability across enterprise verticals; and a form factor that supports all-day use and clear ROI (e.g. manufacturing efficiencies). Adoption is currently dampened by typical organizational inertia, enterprise risk aversion and sales cycles. ARtillry Intelligence believes these factors will continue to stunt enterprise AR growth but will be outweighed eventually by the … see full report for the rest.

Consumer AR will grow from $*million in 2017 to $*billion in 2022, a 110 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Near term revenues will be dominated by the mobile form factor. Revenues will also be software-centric during that time (mobile device sales aren’t counted in this forecast) and will include premium apps and in-app purchases. The latter will dominate software revenues in the near term, due to consumer hesitance to pay upfront for AR apps, as well as the in-app revenue model validated by Pokémon Go. Niantic will find success in its follow- … see full report for the rest. 

Enterprise VR will grow from $*million in 2017 to $*billion in 2022, a 55 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Though strong in its own right, it will hold the smallest share of XR revenues among the sub-sectors measured in this forecast. VR will be stronger as a consumer play (see next slide), while AR is stronger in the enterprise. These VR shortcomings (relatively speaking) in the enterprise stem from the medium’s inherent isolation, which inhibits some job functions and share of time per working day. This is especially true in industrial functions where … see full report for the rest.

Consumer VR will grow from $*billion in 2017 to $*billion in 2022, a 28 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Like enterprise VR, it will be hardware-dominant in early years as its installed base is established. Over time, software (in this case, games and apps) will eclipse hardware revenues with a faster refresh cycle. A greater installed base of hardware will also incentivize VR content creators to invest in long-form content, resulting in more robust VR content libraries and greater software spending per user (ARPU). Premium apps will dominate … see full report for the rest.

* See full report for detailed figures and breakdowns

 


Video Companion


What’s Covered

Methodology

ARtillry Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 18 years in research and intelligence in the tech sector. This includes the past 2.5 years covering AR & VR as a main focus.

This report focuses on AR and VR revenue projections in various sub-sectors and product areas. ARtillry Intelligence has built financial models that are customized to the specific dynamics and unit economics of each. These include variables like unit sales, company revenues, pricing trends, market trajectory and several other micro and macro factors that ARtillry Intelligence tracks.

This approach primarily applies a bottom-up forecasting methodology, which is secondarily vetted against a top-down analysis. Together, confidence is achieved through triangulating revenues and projections in a disciplined way. For more information on what’s included and not included in the forecast, see the slide above.

More about ARtillry Intelligence methodology can be seen here, and market-sizing credentials can be seen here.

    


Price: $699 (w/ analyst briefing) $499 (w/o briefing)

This 80-slide report is available by subscribing to ARtillry PRO, or purchasing a la carte. The individual report price is $699. including a briefing with the report’s author to discuss takeaways and answer any questions you may have. It can also be purchased without a briefing for $499.

 


Disclosure and Ethics Statement

ARtillry has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in this report, nor received payment for its production. With respect to market sizing, ARtillry remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers. It doesn’t perform paid services or consulting for such companies, thus mitigating bias — real or perceived — in market sizing and industry revenue projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.


Preview the report, subscribe to ARtillry PRO, or purchase a la carte. 

XR Global Revenue Forecast